Greedy outsiders now take everything
In the newer models we observed that an outsider instructed to take greedily from the commons will now immediately take everything. In the original paper we saw that, for GPT-4o, in the fishing case there was a chance to talk the outsider down, but this is not reproduced in newer models.
In Piatti et al., an outsider instructed to take resources greedily was dropped in at month 4. In the fishery, it still left enough for the other agents to discuss, and they talked it down to a sustainable share. Now, the outsider empties the pool in the month it arrives, before any discussion. Universalization, where models are asked to imagine what would happen if every model behaved the same way, only helps in some cases we tested, and no run reaches a stable equilibrium.
Completed full-scenario runs (max_rounds 0) in the published govsim index for <scenario>_perturbation_outsider and <scenario>_perturbation_outsider_universalization. The figure shows each run's survival_months by model; outsider runs are configured for 15 months, so 15 would mean no collapse. The dashed line is month four, when the newcomer first harvests. Request counts read the govsim.harvest events: the newcomer is persona_4, joins in round 3 (month four), and wanted_resource is the request before allocation.
Cite this finding
@misc{eicher-2026-greedy-outsiders-now,
author = {Jonathan Elsworth Eicher},
title = {Greedy outsiders now take everything},
year = {2026},
howpublished = {Multi-Agent Databank},
url = {https://databank.antimemetics.institute/findings/outsiders-collapse-at-month-four},
note = {Retrieved 2026-10-19}
}